Stand on the Malecón on a clear morning and look across to the low sand line of El Mogote. The water between the two is where the juvenile whale sharks feed. It sits inside a federal refuge that covers 22,749 hectares of sea in front of the city, running from San Juan de la Costa to the mouth of the ensenada. The juveniles found here are four to five meters long. They stay close to this site because it gives them food and protection from predators, which makes the bay a secondary nursery for the largest fish in the world.
If friends or family are flying in this winter and the whale shark swim tops their list, the season is open on paper. Semarnat's notice for 2026-2027 sets it from October 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027. Inside that window, a running count of the sharks sets how many boats can leave the dock each day.
The count that sets the day
The official notice from Semarnat's Dirección General de Vida Silvestre is dated September 17, 2026. It ties daily operations to a single number. Outings run in four shifts a day, and they can only start when at least six whale sharks are present. The notice defines that number as the average of the two most recent official counts, rounded up to the next whole number, using data from Conanp, Mexico's national protected areas commission.
As the shark number rises, so does the number of boats allowed out. Here is the notice's Table 1:
| Sharks counted | Boats per shift | Boats per day |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 7, 8 or 9 | 7 | 28 |
| 10 | 8 | 32 |
| 11 | 9 | 36 |
| 12 | 10 | 40 |
| 13 | 11 | 44 |
| 14 or more | 14 | 56 |
Two details in the table matter for anyone planning a guest's trip. First, the step from seven to nine sharks is flat. Two more sharks in the bay add no boats, and the limit stays at seven per shift until the count reaches ten. Second, the ceiling is far below the number of permits. Semarnat is issuing 112 authorizations this season, each one tied to one permit holder, one boat and one identification flag. Even with 14 or more sharks, no more than 14 boats can be in the swim zone at once, and no more than 56 can go out in a day. So on a strong day, half the permitted fleet still stays at the dock. On a six-shark day, 24 boats can go out.
Semarnat says the rule rests on monitoring in the refuge, on how much the number of sharks changes, and on the carrying capacity set for the area.
Why the count can drop to zero
The six-shark minimum has already decided past seasons. Maya Comunicación reported that in late January 2025, Semarnat suspended swimming and observation in the bay after Conanp monitoring counted nine sharks on January 20, five on January 26 and one on January 27. That happened in the middle of what is usually the strong stretch of the season. When POSTA BCS covered the opening of last season, the 2025-2026 cycle, it put the peak sighting months at December through February.
Now apply this season's averaging rule to counts like those. A day of nine followed by a day of five averages to seven, which still allows seven boats per shift. Two lower counts in a row pull the average under six, and then no one goes out. Because the rule uses two counts, one bad morning does not end the swims on its own, but a real drop shows up within a couple of counts.
The averaging matters because the bay is not open water for tours. The refuge has three zones. Swimming and observation are allowed only in Zone I. Zone II is for conservation, with no activity involving the sharks, and Zone III is a transit zone with a top speed of seven knots, about 12.9 kilometers per hour. The count that matters is the number of sharks inside Zone I, the one stretch where boats can stop and swimmers can get in.
What the water rules look like for your guests
Once a boat is cleared to go, the swim follows the federal standard NOM-171-SEMARNAT-2018. It was published in the Diario Oficial on November 19, 2019 and took effect February 17, 2020. According to Maya Comunicación's summary, this is what visitors should expect in the water:
- Small groups. One specialized guide supervises at most five swimmers, and the group stays together.
- Distance. Swimmers stay at least two meters from the shark's sides and head and three meters from its tail fin. No one swims in front of the animal or blocks its path.
- Time. One boat can stay with a shark or group of sharks for up to 30 minutes while other boats wait 50 meters away.
- Gear. Mask, fins and snorkel, plus a life vest or wetsuit. Only biodegradable sunscreen is allowed before getting in the water, and propulsion devices are not permitted.
- Photos. Allowed, but with no selfie sticks, no flash and no other artificial light.
- Hands off. Touching, riding, harassing or splitting up a group of sharks is prohibited. If a shark shows stress, swims evasively, slaps its tail defensively or dives for a long time, the activity with that shark has to end.
The thirty-minute limit and the 50-meter waiting distance connect back to the boat caps. With up to 14 boats in Zone I and only one allowed beside a shark at a time, the waiting boats need sharks to rotate to. The more sharks there are, the less waiting there is, and that is the reason the boat limit follows the count.
A practical tip for out-of-town guests: biodegradable sunscreen is easy to forget when packing. It is worth mentioning before they arrive so they don't have to hunt for it on the morning of the tour.
Before you book for visitors
The same rules give you a few things to check on the boat itself. Under the notice, swim boats cannot be longer than 11 meters, or 36.3 feet. Authorized boats must fly the Semarnat identification flag where it can be seen. The operator or guide should carry the original authorization or a certified copy. Because the swims take place inside the refuge, operators also need a Conanp authorization on top of the Semarnat permit.
The count rule also changes how you should read a booking. No operator controls how many sharks show up, so a guaranteed swim on a fixed date is a promise the operator can't keep. Maya Comunicación makes the same point and suggests asking about the rescheduling or refund policy in case activity is suspended. If your guests are in town for a week, book the swim early in their stay. That leaves a few spare mornings if the count is low on the first try.
Last season, the city grouped its registered nautical tour providers at a Punto Único de Venta, a single sales point on Callejón Ignacio Bañuelos Cabezud. POSTA BCS reported that 62 permit holders registered with the Ayuntamiento de La Paz, the Capitanía de Puerto and Semarnat were working through it during the 2025-2026 cycle. The state government of Baja California Sur described the module as equipped by the municipality for visitors to book recreation services, serving 70 providers. If you plan to book there this winter, check its current hours first, since those reports describe earlier seasons.
The 2026-2027 notice applies only to this season. By the end of October the season is four weeks old, and from now through April 30 the Conanp count will set how many boats leave each morning. These are federal rules for operators and swimmers, and I'm sharing them as general information, not legal advice. The linked notice and standard are the authoritative texts, so confirm the details with your tour operator or with Semarnat and Conanp before you go.
Hosting guests is one of the small joys of life in Baja, and I love helping people plan the moments that make a visit stick, from a morning in the bay to a quiet dinner along the Malecón. If you're thinking about La Paz as a place to settle, or about where your own visitors would stay, Leysan Firdinat is happy to talk it through in English, Spanish, Russian or Turkish. Let's Connect.
